CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-09-10T00:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-09-10T00:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33297/-1
CME Note: Wide CME associated with a long duration M1.2-class flare from Active Region 3814 (N15E10) seen predominantly to the northeast in SOHO C2 imagery and east-northeast in STEREO A COR2. The eruptive signature is seen as a large-broad scale destabilization seen as a surge-like brightening in SDO AIA 131, opening and brightening field lines in GOES SUVI 284 with additional dimming and an EUV wave to the north, and bright, high post-eruptive arcades seen best in SDO AIA 171/193/304. There is a data gap in real-time in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 at the start of the CME from approx. 2024-09-09T21:48Z to 2024-09-10T01:25Z. CME arrival detected by ACE starting at 2024-09-12T02:53Z. Increase in B_total to about 16nT with subsequent jump in B_total peaking at ~26nT at ~2024-09-12T09:35Z. This arrival is accompanied by an increase in velocity from ~360 km/s to ~420nT, followed by a second jump in velocity to ~550 km/s corresponding to the additional jumps in B_total. There is also an associated increase in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-12T02:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-12T13:17Z (-7.58h, +7.58h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:
CME input parameters: Apex direction (deg): -5 longitude, +26 latitude Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 initial CME speed: 755.0 (+/- 50) km/s initial height: 21.5 R_sun initial time: 2024-09-10T04:37Z drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s time step: 10 min ensemble members: 50k https://helioforecast.space/cmeLead Time: 11.97 hour(s)
Difference: -10.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Christian Moestl (ASWO) on 2024-09-11T14:55Z
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